When Republican pollster Bill McInturff received the results of his latest survey on health-care reform, he did a double-take.
What caught his attention?
The support and opposition levels for President Obama's health-reform initiative were almost identical to the situation facing President Clinton at a similar time in the Clinton's ultimately unsuccessful health-care overhaul effort.
"It was deja vu all over again," he said today at a breakfast meeting sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.
Today, 25 percent of Americans favor Obama-style reform, while 37 percent say they are opposed, according to a just-released Public Opinion Strategies survey. In June 1994, shortly before the collapse of Clinton-care, 23 percent said they supported it and 35 percent were against it.
The numbers, said GOP pollster McInturff, are "incredibly close to the Clinton health plan."
What's more, public debate did not help either Obama or Clinton. Today, 49 percent of Americans say they like the Obama plan less as they learn more about it, while 38 percent say they like it more. With Clinton, the negative number was 53 percent, the positive number 34 percent.
Obama is a little better off there, but not much.
There is one major difference in the numbers. Obama's support is much deeper and more passionate than was Clinton's. Obama's overall job-approval rating is higher than Clinton's was, his personality favorability ratings are higher and the intensity of his support is much higher.
"The country wants him to be successful," McInturff said.
Still, the pollster said, the latest numbers are "an enormous caution sign for the Democratic majority" on Capitol Hill.
Graphic by Richard S. Dunham
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Hillarysworld -> Obama and Congress -> (8.27.2009) Texas on the Potomac ( Houston Chron Blog) Bad news for Obama: Health reform support slipping