In a series of polls that show a range of different results between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown, independents were the key variable. In most of the polls, Brown leads Coakley among independents by at least 2 to 1.

“There’s high intensity among independents, and that has not been the case in a lot of other elections,’’ said David Paleologos, who conducted a poll for Suffolk University last week that gave Brown a narrow edge.

The trouble is, no one knows exactly how many independents will turn out in the first-ever statewide special election - in the dead of winter, no less.

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