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President Palin's Long Odds

By David Paul Kuhn, February 16, 2010

One week after keynoting the Tea Party convention in Nashville, Sarah Palin attended NASCAR's premiere race – the Daytona 500. "It's an all-Americana event," she said in a brief speech. "We love you, Sarah!" fans shouted on her way out. The next day she visited the local Chamber of Commerce and signed copies of her bestselling book, "Going Rogue."

This is how presidential hopefuls test waters. Daytona Beach falls at the eastern edged of the I-4 corridor in Florida, the swing region in this key swing state. Palin has already acknowledged she's considering a run. And no less than the dean of the Washington press corps, David Broder, wrote last week that "Palin is by all odds a threat to the more uptight Republican aspirants such as Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty" and "potentially" Barack Obama.

But Palin, by any empirical measure, deserves long odds. The 2012 cycle might be Palin's big chance at the big show. She is still fresh off a sellout book tour that, brilliantly, amounted to an old-fashioned barnstorm. Yet the hyper-coverage, the passionate supporters and obsessive detractors, obscure one clear fact: Americans' are losing respect for Palin.

Palin's goal after the 2008 campaign was to prove she had the substance to match her exceptional talent. But today less view Palin as presidential than on ElectionDay '08. Then, 38 percent of voters saw her as qualified to be president.

Now, 26 percent view her as qualified , according to last week's ABC News/Washington Post poll. Bloomberg and CNN polls late last year echo the result. Compared to Palin, according to CNN, three times as many voters say Hillary Clinton is qualified. Twice as many say the same about Joe Biden. Palin's potential competition, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, rate in the 40s.

Palin has problems even by a political upstart's standards. Consider John Edwards vintage 2004. That July, when Edwards was tapped as the vice presidential nominee, Gallup found that 57 percent saw him as qualified.

The more accurate comparison, one Palin's camp detests, is to Dan Quayle. Only one third of adults thought Quayle was qualified to be president in March and November 1990, a comparable period to today.

And Palin has her own team to blame. Only one in four Republicans viewed Palin as unqualified to be president on Election Day [2008]. That figure has now doubled, to 52 percent, in the latest ABC/Post poll.

But Palin's failings with independents, now sustained nearly 14 months, might prove her most difficult to correct. Two-thirds of independents view her as "unqualified." That is a "very big number," Karlyn Bowman said, a public opinion specialist at the American Enterprise Institute.

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Only 37 percent of the public has a favorable opinion of Palin, according to the ABC/Post poll. Her personal appeal, once her asset, is now too an issue.

Remember the question that once dogged Hillary Clinton: was she "too polarizing" to be president? Innumerable Republicans argued yes. Even Obama later inferred so much. But at the time, 2005 and 2006, Clinton's favorability ratings were in the low to mid 50s.

Starkly put, Palin today faces the worst hurdles of both Clinton and Quayle combined.

Palin has some reason for optimism. Qualifications do not win presidencies. But every contender must pass the gut check, prove able and ready. And so will Palin.

[SNIP]

Palin needs a rebranding. And not since the "New Nixon" has it been done. That was also the dawn of the televised presidency. In this era of hyper-saturated media, perceptions might harden far sooner.

Palin's believers remain as dedicated as ever. Millions still echo the chant: "Run, Sarah, run." But one more hard truth: most Americans want her to seek another job.

More . . .

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Her recent appearances were her prime opportunity to rebrand. In a sense she did rebrand with her cynicism in her latest appearance at the TPN session in TN.