Hillarysworld

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/most-top-2010-races-being-wage.html
There's a reason that Bill Clinton was making the closing argument for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) just days before today's runoff, while the senator has made strides to separate herself from President Obama.

This is Clinton country.

Yes, Clinton is from the state, but it also went hugely for his wife in the 2008 presidential primary -- 70 percent to 26 percent to be exact. The state was one of Obama's worst showings in the general election too.

Arkansas is an extreme example, but many 2010 battles are being waged in similar territory. In fact, a majority of top 2010 races are being held in districts and states where Obama struggled in the Democratic primary fight two years ago.

Much has been made of Republican efforts to win the four dozen (or so) Democratic-held districts where Obama lost to John McCain in 2008. But looking at places where Obama lost to Hillary Clinton can also be instructive when it comes to understanding how the President, who is not on the ballot this fall, will nonetheless impact the fight for congressional control.

According to a Fix analysis, of the 27 Democratic-held House seats and 10 Senate races listed as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, Obama lost roughly half of each by wide margins to Clinton during the primary season.

Obama lost to Clinton in seven of the 10 states with top Senate races, and in about 60 percent of the top 27 House districts. Five of those states and 13 of those House districts went for Clinton by double digits.

If Republicans can effectively tie candidates in these areas to Obama, it appears it could pay dividends by either wooing Democrats or getting them to stay home.

That Pennsylvania special election, which was won by Rep. Mark Critz (D-Pa.) in mid-May, took place in an area where Obama took less than one-third of the vote in the 2008 primary. It was also the only district in the country that went for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 and then McCain in 2008.

Given that, Critz ran against his party in Washington -- most notably on health care -- and did what he could to separate himself from Obama. It worked.

While Critz was able to win in Pennsylvania with a focus on local issues, it's far less clear whether other Democrats sitting in districts like his will be able to avoid the associations with the President on the November ballot.

Obama got crushed in the 2008 Democratic primary in Rep. Suzanne Kosmas's (D-Fla.) district as well as seats held by Reps. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Baron Hill (D-Ind.) and Harry Teague (D-N.M.) and outgoing Reps. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.), Marion Berry (D-Ark.) and Bill Delahunt (D-Mass.). In none of those districts did Obama take more than 40 percent, and he was well below that in a few of them.

In two toss-up districts in Michigan, held by Reps. Bart Stupak and Mark Schauer, Clinton won big majorities while Obama (who was forced to run as "uncommitted" due to party politics) was stuck in the 30s.

No, Obama was not forced to run as "uncommitted." That was his choice. At any rate, other Dems (including Edwards) were still in the race at that point, so the folks who didn't vote for Hillary weren't necessarily voting for Obama.