Hillarysworld

Obama owes most of this year's decline to independents. But Obama's newly weak standing is also due to the loss of still-more Republicans and to a lesser extent, some Democrats.

Democrats need not panic. Most modern re-elected presidents fall below 50 at some point in their first term. But his early popularity (nearly at 70) means that few have, so quickly, fallen as much as Obama. Obama's public approval suffered the worst third quarter (July 20 to October 19) decline of any elected president in the post-war era, according to Gallup.

In a time of tracking polls, Obama can recover and fall in a matter of days. After W. Bush fell below 50 in January and February 2004, he fluctuated in the 40s and low 50s throughout the year. Bush's long dive began in his second term.

Obama first saw 50 in late August, according to the Gallup tracking poll. We've known since then, with an eye on how other presidents dealt with that milestone, that: For Obama, The Fall Below 50% Looms.

Now Obama is here, a president without the majority. I've written before that public approval is the currency of political capital. Now we'll witness—as Democrats struggle to extricate health care from its legislative quagmire—how Obama governs without the riches of what was, last January, soaring public support. These are the periods that test presidents.