There aren't many senators who've run in elections that came down to less than a thousand votes. But Harry Reid has done it—twice. In 1974, he made a run for a vacant Senate seat and lost to Paul Laxalt by around 600 votes. Two terms later, Laxalt retired and Reid captured the spot handily. His good fortune continued until 1998, when a young congressman named John Ensign challenged him. Reid barely scraped by, winning by just more than 400 votes. After cruising to an easy victory in 2004, Reid may be feeling some déjà vu. His approval ratings are abysmal, and although the GOP hasn't settled on a candidate, polls show both of their serious contenders beating Reid in head-to-head matchups. So why, as his national power and name recognition has increased, has Harry Reid gone backward?

"Simply put, Democrats won the Senate and he became majority leader," says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. Reid has never been hugely popular in Nevada. He's a proven legislator, but according to Charlie Cook, author of the influential Cook Report, "he has never had that strong personal bond with Nevadans—that chemistry and warmth." That makes life tough for the plain-spoken, terse Democrat in a state that until quite recently was reliably red. Nevadans went for Barack Obama in 2008, but they also voted for George W. Bush twice. When Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992, he was the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964. "Nevada was a Republican and fairly conservative state for a long time; only in recent years has it become a swing state," Cook told NEWSWEEK in an e-mail.

There aren't many senators who've run in elections that came down to less than a thousand votes. But Harry Reid has done it—twice. In 1974, he made a run for a vacant Senate seat and lost to Paul Laxalt by around 600 votes. Two terms later, Laxalt retired and Reid captured the spot handily. His good fortune continued until 1998, when a young congressman named John Ensign challenged him. Reid barely scraped by, winning by just more than 400 votes. After cruising to an easy victory in 2004, Reid may be feeling some déjà vu. His approval ratings are abysmal, and although the GOP hasn't settled on a candidate, polls show both of their serious contenders beating Reid in head-to-head matchups. So why, as his national power and name recognition has increased, has Harry Reid gone backward?

"Simply put, Democrats won the Senate and he became majority leader," says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. Reid has never been hugely popular in Nevada. He's a proven legislator, but according to Charlie Cook, author of the influential Cook Report, "he has never had that strong personal bond with Nevadans—that chemistry and warmth." That makes life tough for the plain-spoken, terse Democrat in a state that until quite recently was reliably red. Nevadans went for Barack Obama in 2008, but they also voted for George W. Bush twice. When Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992, he was the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964. "Nevada was a Republican and fairly conservative state for a long time; only in recent years has it become a swing state," Cook told NEWSWEEK in an e-mail.

Another issue Reid will confront is the transience of Nevada's population. Home to the largest gaming industry in the country, Nevada attracts hospitality and service workers, and both are sectors where employee turnover is relatively high. Those workers come and go. ...

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That is some title for an article, man!  Nevada is gonna be a waaay too interesting!