Action, and Now Reaction

The founders built the House of Representatives to act. And throughout President Obama’s first year, the House has acted.

From economic stimulus to energy, from health care to financial regulation and jobs, House leaders marshaled the votes for Mr. Obama’s priorities.

But now, 10 months before midterm elections, the majority’s political fate has mostly slipped beyond its control. Facing a deeply unsettled electorate, House Democrats instead rely on external factors for survival: Senate counterparts’ ability to complete their shared agenda, Mr. Obama’s ability to revive public confidence, the United States economy’s ability to generate jobs.

Last week’s Labor Department report, showing persistent 10 percent unemployment and the unexpected loss of 85,000 jobs in December, was not reassuring.

“This is a tough context in which we find ourselves,” said Representative Steny H. Hoyer, the House majority leader. So tough that Mr. Hoyer defines victory in 2010 as including a steep erosion in Democratic strength.

In an interview, Mr. Hoyer, a 15-term Democrat from Maryland, accepted that his 256-member caucus would shrink, and said he was aiming merely to prevent it from plummeting below the 218 needed to maintain control.

Out on a Limb

No one missed Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent jab at Mr. Obama when she pointed out campaign stances that he has since set aside. More surprising is that there has been so little grousing.

Mr. Obama asked for energy legislation establishing a controversial cap-and-trade system for limiting carbon emissions to curb climate change. The House passed it in June; the Senate has not acted.

Mr. Obama sought a health care overhaul including a “public option” for insurance coverage. The House passed one in November; the Senate discarded that politically volatile provision.

Mr. Obama requested new regulations for Wall Street to prevent a repeat of the financial system’s near collapse in 2008. The House delivered in December; the Senate has not.

Mr. Hoyer would not complain about the heavy White House agenda that has put vulnerable Democrats at risk, or the Senate’s inability to keep pace. Mr. Obama had no choice but to confront the problems he campaigned on and inherited, the majority leader noted, and Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic leader, needs his entire 60-seat majority on the toughest floor fights.

That limits the House’s ability to bargain for provisions backed by liberals, like the health care public option. The left faces more disappointment on the Afghanistan war, where Mr. Obama is on track to win majority support for the 30,000 additional troops he is seeking.

“The president, as commander in chief, has made a determination,” Mr. Hoyer observed, and “ultimately the House and the Senate are going to support the president.”

That could further drain enthusiasm from party activists at a time when conservative ire over Mr. Obama’s agenda fuels Republican campaigns. Instead of heat, Democratic candidates must count on the cool pragmatism of Mr. Obama’s governance to rally their voters.

“Has he compromised?” Mr. Hoyer asked. “Of course he’s compromised. Does either base want compromise? They don’t.”

No More Naps

House leaders now join Mr. Obama in a difficult balancing act: backing new spending to create jobs while promoting the long-term goal of closing a mammoth budget deficit.

“What you have to do is convince the American public and members of Congress that in order to get to a fiscal balance, you’ve got to have a growing economy,” Mr. Hoyer said. “In order to have a growing economy, you’ve got to create jobs and invest in growing that economy.”

The difficulty of making that case was evident in last month’s vote on a $174 billion jobs bill. Democratic leaders muscled it through by a vote of 217-212, as many deficit-conscious moderates refused to go along.

It was a radical shift in the political winds that propelled Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008. Mr. Obama’s job approval rating hovers around 50 percent, with ratings for Congress at roughly half that level. Charlie Cook, the political handicapper, considers 39 Democratic seats in jeopardy, compared with just 11 Republican seats.

More . . .

"

======================

I'd have titled that "Reaction, Inaction, Reaction."