With John Heilemann and Mark Halperin's presidential election tell-all, "Game Change," hitting shelves this past week (spoiler: Obama wins), political enthusiasts are arguing over delegates, endorsements and tactical maneuvers with a relish I haven't seen since, well, 14 months ago.
There's nothing wrong with rehashing the politics of years past -- and the 2008 presidential election is a particularly fine vintage to sample. But, if in the spirit of looking back we can spare a thought for the year just ended, next week also marks the first anniversary of Hillary Clinton's swearing in as secretary of state -- an excellent time to take stock of her tenure in that role so far. Let's look back at what was good, what was bad, and consider what's to come. The Good
It's rare for a secretary of state to be more popular than a first lady -- it's even rarer for one to be the same person. This time last year, as her Senate confirmation kicked off, Gallup noted that Clinton's approval rating had risen to its highest point (65 percent) in the last 10 years, and it has remained high. Clinton's first year as secretary of state was marked with high-profile international trips, including several tours through Asia and a seven-nation tour in Africa -- a new, but perhaps not unfamiliar, task. James Lindsay, vice president for the Council of Foreign Relations, noted to Politics Daily that "she's a former presidential candidate, and far more comfortable with the public side of the job [than her predecessors]. If you look at her trips abroad, she has a lot of enthusiasm for the public diplomacy side of the job."
But the most interesting takeaway from Clinton's first year as secretary may be in two areas that have reliably been popping up on the State Department's agenda: global hunger and women's rights. These are not new concerns for State, but Clinton has become increasingly likely to frame them in economic or security terms rather than in humanitarian ones, calling hunger "a threat to the stability of governments, societies and borders" at a meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative this summer, and repeatedly citing girls' education as a basic component of economic development. It's still early in Clinton's tenure, but her focus on the policy implications of two areas that have historically been on the periphery of State's humanitarian efforts suggests that they will become increasingly important agenda items as she continues her term.
The Bad
In 1995, Clinton delivered a fairly stirring indictment of China's record on human rights to the U.N.'s World Conference on Women in Beijing. For those hoping to see more of the same in 2009, Clinton's generally tepid language to China has been disappointing, particularly after a February trip to Beijing, during which human rights remained largely out of the spotlight.
As 2009 wrapped up, the issue seemed to be creeping back onto the agenda -- though with noticeably softer rhetoric than in 1995. Clinton noted in a speech at Georgetown in December that she was taking a "principled pragmatism" approach in pressing human rights concerns with China and Russia.
The Undecided
With just one year under her belt, the real tests for Hillary Clinton as secretary of state are yet to come, and some of them will undoubtedly be surprises -- like the unexpected coup in Honduras over the summer, followed by the even more unexpected stealth return a few months later of ousted president Manuel Zelaya, who has holed up at the Brazilian Embassy (U.S. calls to restore Zelaya to power were ignored by the new government). Still, the big issue looming is the nuclear ambitions -- and growing capabilities -- of Iran and North Korea.
Last summer, Clinton and North Korean officials traded barbs over the rogue nation's nuclear program. When Clinton compared the staging of missile tests to small children or teenagers demanding attention, Pyongyang countered by calling her "a funny lady." If that slightly oblique insult failed to register, it's follow-up, comparing her to "a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping," must have stung a little more. The possibility of renewed talks was batted around throughout the year, with occasional signs of a thaw. But so far, even negotiations over how to return to the negotiating table have stalled, with the United States insisting on six-party talks on disarmament and North Korea still aiming to negotiate with the U.S alone or return to six-party talks only with certain conditions in place.
As for Iran, Clinton spoke on Monday of an as-yet-unrevealed plan for targeted sanctions to deter its nuclear program. According to the New York Times, she said:
"There is a relatively small group of decision makers inside Iran. They are in both political and commercial relationships, and if we can create a sanctions track that targets those who actually make the decisions, we think that is a smarter way to do sanctions. But all that is yet to be decided upon."
So far, sanctions -- or the threat of them -- have been remarkably ineffective, doing little to dampen either the movement towards nuclear capabilities or the brutal suppression of Iranian dissidents (which flared in June when protests of Iran's much-criticized presidential election were quashed). Whether a proposed tiered system of sanctions would be any more fruitful remains to be seen, but the effectiveness of any sanctions would likely depend on the ability to pull other countries, particularly Russia, on board.
The Memorable
One of the early arguments trotted out against Clinton's appointment as secretary of state was that she has always been a lightning rod for critics and supporters alike, which could turn a diplomatic role into a contentious one, not only abroad but domestically as well. That scenario hasn't materialized. Despite a salted-earth presidential campaign, Clinton and Obama have a smooth working relationship and she's been widely lauded as an influential Cabinet member.
Still, with tidbits from the Democratic primaries occasionally resurfacing to make headlines, there's been no shortage of reminiscing about Clinton's past as a candidate and a first lady. Which is why, for better or worse, one of the most memorable sound bites of Clinton's first year was her incredulous response to a student who questioned her about Bill Clinton's thoughts on loans from China: "You want to know what my husband thinks? My husband is not secretary of state -- I am."
The Measure
It's relatively early to assess Hillary Clinton's time as secretary of state, but instructive to see how her time in office parallels -- or breaks with -- that of recent predecessors in the role. Some of the conflicts faced are familiar.