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TOPIC: "Six factors to watch for Tuesday's election" (Boston Globe 1/18/10)
Sanders


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"Six factors to watch for Tuesday's election" (Boston Globe 1/18/10)
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"

Six factors to watch for Tuesday's election

Scott Brown and Martha Coakley
Globe Staff Photos


Massachusetts voters head to the polls Tuesday to fill the first open US Senate seat in 25 years in a race that started out slow but has become the hottest item in national politics.

Some polls show Republican candidate Scott Brown and Democratic hopeful Martha Coakley running neck-and-neck in their campaigns for Edward M. Kennedy's seat. Additionally, the outcome of the election could reverse or preserve the filibuster-proof majority the Democrats currently enjoy in the Senate.

So, what's going to decide this election? Here are six factors to watch on Tuesday.

1. The independent vote

Traditionally, around 50 percent of Massachusetts voters are registered as "unenrolled," or independent. With the state's tiny Republican base, Scott Brown needs to convince independents he's a better option than Martha Coakley. Brown has hammered home the message that he's a free-thinking independent, not a party-line candidate, and some polls show him with a significant edge among independents. Will it work? Or will Coakley grab enough independents to keep Brown in the state Senate?

Traditionally, around 50 percent of Massachusetts voters are registered as 'unenrolled,' or independent. With the state's tiny Republican base, Scott Brown needs to convince independents he's a better option than Martha Coakley. Brown has hammered home the message that he's a free-thinking independent, not a party-line candidate, and some polls show him with a significant edge among independents. Will it work? Or will Coakley grab enough independents to keep Brown in the state Senate?
John Tlumacki/Globe Staff

2. The Democratic base

Until recently, Martha Coakley seemed a lock for the Senate seat. But with Scott Brown gaining ground, she now needs every vote she can get, and a lack of turnout among Democratic voters could spell trouble for her candidacy. Can her operation, and the state's Democratic Party, get its base out to the polls on Tuesday?
Until recently, Martha Coakley seemed a lock for the Senate seat. But with Scott Brown gaining ground, she now needs every vote she can get, and a lack of turnout among Democratic voters could spell trouble for her candidacy. Can her operation, and the state's Democratic Party, get its base out to the polls on Tuesday?
Getty Images

3. National impact

Thanks to a tightening of the race in recent weeks, cable TV shows, national news organizations, and political pundits all have their eyes on Massachusetts. Will the sudden burst in coverage inspire the average Massachusetts resident to hit the polls -- or affect how he or she votes?
Thanks to a tightening of the race in recent weeks, cable TV shows, national news organizations, and political pundits all have their eyes on Massachusetts. Will the sudden burst in coverage inspire the average Massachusetts resident to hit the polls -- or affect how he or she votes?
Photo composite

4. Obama's visit

President Obama is coming to Massachusetts Sunday to campaign for Coakley in an effort to give the party's candidate a last-minute push in the polls. Will the high-profile visit from the nation's highest-ranking Democrat give Coakley the desired boost, or will it backfire among voters disillusioned by the sour economy and health care overhaul?

5. Kennedy voters

Despite possessing perhaps the most valuable last name in politics, independent candidate Joseph Kennedy (no relation) is not a real threat to win. However, with some polls calling the race even, will Kennedy's potential to siphon off a few percentage points from one candidate play a deciding factor, as Ralph Nader did in Florida for the 2000 presidential race?
Despite possessing perhaps the most valuable last name in politics, independent candidate Joseph Kennedy (no relation) is not a real threat to win. However, with some polls calling the race even, will Kennedy's potential to siphon off a few percentage points from one candidate play a deciding factor, as Ralph Nader did in Florida for the 2000 presidential race?
Wendy Maeda/Globe StaffiStockPhoto


6. The money factor

Money from outside the state has been pouring into both campaigns. In addition, Scott Brown launched marathon fund-raising drives in the past week that netted him millions. Will the recent influx of cash give one candidate a lift over another?
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I'm hoping the people of MA make the right choice. I think Brown is a sincere individual with a sensible agenda.

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Eminence


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Kbentleyis wrote:

I'm hoping the people of MA make the right choice. I think Brown is a sincere individual with a sensible agenda.


Kbentley, good to see you! Yes, it seems Mass (not to mention the masses) are fed up with what is going on in the government.

What I also find so interesting about Brown's candidacy is that Brown, in many ways, is the most liberal Republican candidate we have seen out of all of the last 4 Republican/conservative candidates. This hasn't gotten much attention from the media but something I observed recently.

Let's contrast the four major Republican candidates of the last few months. They are 1) Christie in NJ, 2) McDonnell in Virgina, 3) Hoffman in NY-23, and 4) Brown in MA.

On a scale of who is more liberal and who is more conservative (comparatively) -- Brown is the most liberal of all of them and Hoffman the most conservative (with Christie and McDonnell somewhere in between).

And yet, we saw what happened with Hoffman. He lost in a race that should have been a shoe-in, since NY-23 is considered a more conservative district in the country.

What I think this is telling us then is that the country is not for ideological extremes anymore, of any kind. We truly are a moderate country, and that is starting to emerge in people's preferences.

Scott Brown then I think represents something quite unique, and something very telling. If he wins, it will not only be the death knoll for the extremist leftist agenda that we see in Washington right now, but should also be a warning shot to Republicans that "If you run mega conservative candidates, you will lose (like you did in NY-23). But if you run moderate candidates, you may likely win."

The era of the country being held hostage, hopefully, to extremist positions of either party is coming to end. Moderates will be taking back the country from both parties.



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Eminence wrote:
Kbentleyis wrote:

I'm hoping the people of MA make the right choice. I think Brown is a sincere individual with a sensible agenda.

Kbentley, good to see you! Yes, it seems Mass (not to mention the masses) are fed up with what is going on in the government.

What I also find so interesting about Brown's candidacy is that Brown, in many ways, is the most liberal Republican candidate we have seen out of all of the last 4 Republican/conservative candidates. This hasn't gotten much attention from the media but something I observed recently.

Let's contrast the four major Republican candidates of the last few months. They are 1) Christie in NJ, 2) McDonnell in Virgina, 3) Hoffman in NY-23, and 4) Brown in MA.

On a scale of who is more liberal and who is more conservative (comparatively) -- Brown is the most liberal of all of them and Hoffman the most conservative (with Christie and McDonnell somewhere in between).

And yet, we saw what happened with Hoffman. He lost in a race that should have been a shoe-in, since NY-23 is considered a more conservative district in the country.

What I think this is telling us then is that the country is not for ideological extremes anymore, of any kind. We truly are a moderate country, and that is starting to emerge in people's preferences.

Scott Brown then I think represents something quite unique, and something very telling. If he wins, it will not only be the death knoll for the extremist leftist agenda that we see in Washington right now, but should also be a warning shot to Republicans that "If you run mega conservative candidates, you will lose (like you did in NY-23). But if you run moderate candidates, you may likely win."

The era of the country being held hostage, hopefully, to extremist positions of either party is coming to end. Moderates will be taking back the country from both parties.

Eminence, You make a very solid observation and I am in total agreement.

Yes, the country is emerging to be a moderate country and the extremes cannot stand any more.  That has many implications for future elections.

 



__________________
Democracy needs defending - SOS Hillary Clinton, Sept 8, 2010
Democracy is more than just elections - SOS Hillary Clinton, Oct 28, 2010

Madam Secretary Blog at ForeignPolicy.com
Project Vote Smart - Stay informed and engaged!
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