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• JANUARY 19, 2010

Turnout Is Key in Massachusetts Battle

Close Race for Senate Galvanizes Supporters

By GREG HITT , TAMARA AUDI AND PETER WALLSTEN

NORTH ANDOVER, Mass.—The fight for a Massachusetts U.S. Senate seat, and with it President Barack Obama's domestic agenda, is coming down to one essential challenge: maximizing turnout of core supporters in dismal wintry weather conditions.

Both campaigns in Tuesday's special election to succeed the late Edward Kennedy, joined by allies on the left and right, are mounting extraordinary efforts to boost turnout, pouring millions of dollars into advertising while flooding neighborhoods with canvassers and phone lines with last-minute appeals to vote.

Snow and sleet fell across most of Massachusetts Monday. Rain or snow is expected again Tuesday, especially in the Boston area, which could depress turnout.

This eleventh-hour push is more akin to a presidential campaign in a closely fought battleground. But it is unfolding in a traditionally liberal state that has rarely seen a grass-roots showdown. The contest may come down to whether the Democratic Party's traditional allies can overcome what appears to be a surge of local enthusiasm for the Republican candidate.

"It's a four-alarm fire up here on both sides," said Ellen Malcolm, president of the liberal group Emily's List, which is airing a radio ad statewide attacking Scott Brown, the Republican candidate.

Mr. Brown, until now a little-known state senator, has launched what his campaign called a "voter bomb," in which supporters are encouraged to sign onto the campaign online and commit to get 20 people to the polls. Democrat Martha Coakley launched a "snow-a-thon," with about 1,000 volunteers working phones from their homes.

After making a speech in Springfield, Ms. Coakley was swarmed by supporters. "I've been on the phone for the last two nights," Jack Rioni told her as she waded through the crowd. Ms. Coakley, the state's attorney general, stopped to shake his hand. "You've been getting good response, right?" she asked.

Associated Press

Candidates made last-minute appeals to voters Monday. Scott Brown, right, campaigns in Boston before a Boston Bruins hockey game.

Yes, Mr. Rioni responded, "but a lot of people are annoyed about all the calls."

Mr. Brown, meanwhile, encountered large crowds and throngs of national media, underscoring the quick change in status for a candidate who just last week was considered a long shot.

The conservative Massachusetts Family Institute circulated a "voter guide" highlighting Mr. Brown's support for restrictions on abortion, while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce aired television ads lauding his economic views.

Most special elections are routine affairs, with low interest among voters. But with Mr. Brown presenting himself as the GOP's crucial 41st vote in the Senate—the vote to break the Democrats' filibuster-proof majority—national party officials and interest groups see the contest as critical to health-care legislation and other top Obama administration agenda items.

The White House and its Democratic allies, stunned by polls showing Massachusetts tilting toward the Republican state senator, have scrambled to build a volunteer network "literally overnight" in a state where they haven't needed one before, one party official said.

Associated Press

Martha Coakley, right, shakes hands with Vera O'Connor, of Springfield, Mass., during a rally Monday.

Mr. Obama stumped for Ms. Coakley on Sunday. But a Suffolk University survey found about one in four voters who felt favorably toward the president backing Mr. Brown, one sign the president's personal appeal might not be enough to help his party this year.

The labor federation AFL-CIO, supporting Ms. Coakley, dispatched national and state-level staffers to phone banks, and distributed fliers linking Mr. Brown to former President George W. Bush and "tax cuts for the wealthy."

The Service Employees International union put 300 volunteers into the field and spent $685,000 on a TV ad attacking Mr. Brown.

A Democratic strategist said the number of volunteers nearly doubled from Thursday to Saturday, when some 3,500 supporters reaching out to voters, making more than 500,000 "voter contacts," including calls and email solicitations.

Democratic strategists contended Monday that they had stemmed the rise in Mr. Brown's poll numbers. Public surveys showed either a neck-and-neck race or a slight Brown lead. The Suffolk poll over the weekend of bellwether areas of the state showed Mr. Brown with double-digit leads in those places, mostly because independent voters have moved so strongly in his favor.

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Associated Press

Massachusetts State Sen. Scott Brown greeted attendees at a Martin Luther King Jr. memorial breakfast in Boston Monday.

While strategists in both campaigns cautioned that the outcome remained in doubt, a spate of last-minute polls suggested Mr. Brown was holding a lead heading into Election Day, including a survey by InsiderAdvantage/Politico that showed him up 52% to 43%.

Asked by reporters about Mr. Brown's poll numbers, Ms. Coakley said: "The polls aren't accurate and we don't pay attention to them. We'll talk on Wednesday." Ms. Coakley said her campaign is "very confident" and that the response from supporters "has been tremendous."

The field organization for Mr. Brown isn't as extensive as the one being mounted by Democrats in the final days. A Brown campaign official said some 500 volunteers worked daily over the holiday weekend, making close to 125,000 voter contacts each day, including phone calls and door knocking.

The campaign also has a program in which volunteers can make calls from home, which prompted Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) to circulate an appeal to his own supporters around the country urging them to join the Brown cause.

Mr. Brown said he is "grateful" for the grass-roots support that has propelled his campaign. "We have come a long way, but we still have much work to do," he said.

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