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GOP Needs New Faces

Republicans should see an influx of new blood this year, but who will the party embrace for 2012?

by Bill Schneider

Saturday, Jan. 23, 2010

Republicans don't have a 2010 problem. They have a 2012 problem.

One of many signs that this is going to be a good year for Republicans: A CNN poll taken January 8-10 shows that the race for Congress is virtually tied among registered voters -- 48 percent intend to support the Republican nominee in their district; 45 percent say they will vote for the Democratic one.

A near tie doesn't sound like a blowout. What sounds much more like one are the results from voters who live in competitive House districts, ones where the incumbents were elected with less than 55 percent of the vote. CNN found that voters in competitive districts give Republicans an eye-popping 27-point lead (59 percent to 32 percent). You can't translate that advantage directly into seats gained, but the message to Democrats is clear: Be afraid; be very afraid.

Republicans know how to do opposition.

Right now, most swing districts are represented by Democrats, and the opposition may be as much anti-incumbent as pro-Republican. The CNN poll also asked voters to think about all federal, state, and local elections, and whether they are more inclined to vote "for the incumbent running for re-election" or "for the challenger who does not hold that office." The advantage goes to the challenger, 46 percent to 32 percent.

When voters are upset about the country's direction, as they certainly are now, they focus their anger on the governing class. It's "us" versus "them." Challengers are seen as "us." Want proof? The CNN poll asked respondents whether the incumbent or the challenger is more likely to represent the views of people like themselves. The outcome: advantage challenger, by 54 percent to 25 percent.

Thirty-seven states will elect governors this year. Will there be a lot of turnover? You bet. Twenty-two states have open races for governor, meaning the incumbent won't be running. Many current governors have dismal approval ratings (Democrat Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, 36 percent; Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, 26 percent). So expect to see a lot of new faces.

New faces are exactly what the Republican Party needs for 2012. But will the party embrace them?

Democrats often go for new faces when they choose presidential nominees: Think Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama. Republicans usually nominate candidates who have run before: Think Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain. That Republican tendency is a big reason the candidate at the top of most GOP lists for 2012 is Mitt Romney. It's his turn.

What Republicans need in 2012 is a conservative version of Obama. There were high hopes for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, but he flunked his screen test last year. And Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has not yet lit any fires. Right now, the "tea party" movement is trying to energize -- or take over -- the Republican Party. But it doesn't have a leader with presidential stature. Still, you can bet that, after November 2, a major national publication will come out with a cover story showcasing "The New Faces of the GOP." Who will they be? We don't know yet. First they have to get nominated for an office open in 2010. Then they have to win.

More . . .

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