They were the two undisputed stars of the 2008 campaign — fresh, charismatic, electrifying. But for now, Barack Obama and Sarah Palin have been eclipsed by the churning dynamics of the Tea Party movement, the anger sweeping the nation and the demand for a different kind of change from the one Obama promised just two years ago. The President will struggle to reclaim his momentum after the midterms, while Palin, who has deftly ridden the wave of discontent with Washington and government spending, will emerge stronger than she started the year. Both are sure to play enormous roles in American politics in 2011 and 2012, but neither can be certain if the White House will be home after the next presidential election — or if the desire for something new will put them out in the cold.

With the exception of Obama himself, no one has undergone a greater transformation in the past two years than Sarah Palin. In July 2009, she abruptly quit the Alaska governorship, claiming cryptically that "only dead fish go with the flow," thereby trading in endless battles with her state's legislature and a series of expensive lawsuits for a glamorous career as a well-paid speaker, best-selling author, Fox News commentator and Republican kingmaker.